Speakers
Description
In the first presentation, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths from University of Oxford, will discuss how ABMs can be combined with digital technology, such as machine-learning methods and large-language models, to better understand transmission of both respiratory and sexually-transmitted diseases. Jasmina will discuss recent work by her team to integrate digital technology to generate realistic networks for ABMs as well as challenges in calibration of ABMs, noting her team's recently developed machine-learning and data-drive methods for more efficient and more robust calibration of these models.
In the second presentation, Fabian Sturman from University of Oxford will introduce STARsim agent-based modelling framework, and illustrate it with discussing a subset model of the framework: HPVsim, an ABM for transmission of Humanpapilloma Virus. The talk will also illustrate HPVsim application to explore the impact of different cervical screening and HPV vaccination strategies in the UK.
In the third presentation, Ganna Rozhnova from the Utrecht University will discuss an ABM-modelled Omicron transmission across secondary schools in Netherlands, using the model to quantify the SARS-CoV-2 health burden and the cost-benefit (number of prevented infected students per absent student) for reactive quarantine interventions across different stages of the epidemic.
Finally, in the fourth presentation, by Tom Britton from Stockholm University, will explore whether accounting for heterogeneity in social contacts (by splitting age groups into more and less socially active) affects two epidemic transmissibility metrics: the reproduction number R and the final epidemic size.
The talks within this minisymposium will be combined into a commentary piece that the authors plan to submit to the Journal of Theoretical Biology in late 2026.
Bibliography
@article{stuart_hpvsim:_2024,
title = {{HPVsim}: {An} agent-based model of {HPV} transmission and cervical disease},
volume = {20},
issn = {1553-7358},
shorttitle = {{HPVsim}},
url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012181},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012181},
language = {en},
number = {7},
urldate = {2026-05-11},
journal = {PLOS Computational Biology},
author = {Stuart, Robyn M. and Cohen, Jamie A. and Kerr, Cliff C. and Mathur, Prashant and {National Disease Modelling Consortium of India} and Abeysuriya, Romesh G. and Zimmermann, Marita and Rao, Darcy W. and Boudreau, Mariah C. and Lee, Serin and Yang, Luojun and Klein, Daniel J.},
editor = {Pitzer, Virginia E.},
month = jul,
year = {2024},
pages = {e1012181},
}
@misc{pham_seasonal_2022,
title = {Seasonal patterns of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 transmission in secondary schools: a modelling study},
shorttitle = {Seasonal patterns of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 transmission in secondary schools},
url = {http://medrxiv.org/lookup/doi/10.1101/2022.04.21.22273952},
doi = {10.1101/2022.04.21.22273952},
language = {en},
urldate = {2026-05-11},
author = {Pham, Thi Mui and Westerhof, Ilse and Bootsma, Martin C.J. and Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. and Rozhnova, Ganna and Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia},
month = apr,
year = {2022},
}
@misc{britton_improving_2024,
title = {Improving the use of social contact studies in epidemic modelling},
url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2408.07298},
doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2408.07298},
urldate = {2026-05-11},
publisher = {arXiv},
author = {Britton, Tom and Ball, Frank},
month = jul,
year = {2024},
note = {arXiv:2408.07298},
keywords = {Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Physics - Physics and Society, Statistics - Methodology},
}
@article{bayley_ml-abc:_2026,
title = {{ML}-{ABC}: {Machine}-learning assisted {Approximate} {Bayesian} {Computation} for efficient calibration of agent-based models for pandemic outbreak analysis},
volume = {54},
issn = {17554365},
shorttitle = {{ML}-{ABC}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436525000696},
doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100881},
language = {en},
urldate = {2026-05-11},
journal = {Epidemics},
author = {Bayley, Thomas and Ward, Tony and Sturman, Fabian and Das, Akashaditya and Imeneo, Luca and Kerr, Cliff and Fraser, Christophe and Maskell, Simon and Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina},
month = mar,
year = {2026},
pages = {100881},
}
@article{sturman_can_2025,
title = {Can pruning improve agent-based models’ calibration? {An} application to {HPVsim}},
volume = {611},
issn = {00225193},
shorttitle = {Can pruning improve agent-based models’ calibration?},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022519325000967},
doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2025.112130},
language = {en},
urldate = {2026-05-11},
journal = {Journal of Theoretical Biology},
author = {Sturman, Fabian and Swallow, Ben and Kerr, Cliff and Stuart, Robyn M. and Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina},
month = aug,
year = {2025},
pages = {112130},
}
