Speaker
Description
Macroparasites, such as helminths, mosquitoes, and ticks, can impact host fitness and population dynamics, both directly and through the diseases they transmit. Climate change is expected to lead to macroparasite range shifts as habitats become more suitable towards the poles and less suitable towards the equator. These shifting distributions can have negative consequences on host-macroparasite population persistence and survival; however, mathematical models that can accurately predict such spatiotemporal changes are lacking. Here, we develop trait-based reaction-diffusion equations to model the range change dynamics of environmentally transmitted macroparasites under climate change. Using MATLAB to numerically simulate model solutions over a discrete space-time grid, we focus our analyses on a single-host-single-macroparasite system and track how the macroparasites progress throughout various life stages, die and reproduce; traits which are temperature dependent. We outline in which climate warming scenarios macroparasites and/or their hosts are expected to undergo range contractions vs expansions, as well as which scenarios may lead to increases or decreases in disease burden and extinction risk. Our framework lays the foundation for predicting climate change impacts on the changing spatial distributions of parasites and parasitic diseases and will help managers develop proactive plans for mitigating the subsequent impacts on human, animal and environmental health.
