Speaker
Description
Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a major cause of cervical cancer and several other malignancies, posing an important public health challenge in Japan. Following the suspension of proactive HPV vaccination recommendations in 2013, vaccination coverage dropped sharply, raising concerns about future increases in HPV-related disease burden. To evaluate effective prevention strategies, we developed an age- and sex-structured dynamic transmission model calibrated to Japanese epidemiological and demographic data. The model captures HPV transmission, disease progression, and the direct and indirect effects of vaccination. Using this framework, we assessed the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of multiple HPV vaccination strategies, including female-only and gender-neutral vaccination with different vaccine types (2vHPV, 4vHPV, and 9vHPV). Our results show that HPV vaccination substantially reduces HPV-related diseases, including cervical cancer and genital warts, and that the 9-valent vaccine provides greater health benefits than earlier vaccine formulations. Furthermore, expanding vaccination to include boys further amplifies these benefits through additional direct protection and herd immunity. Overall, our findings suggest that increasing vaccination coverage, prioritizing the 9-valent vaccine, and considering gender-neutral vaccination could significantly reduce the long-term HPV-related disease burden in Japan.
