Speaker
Description
This study presents a six-compartment deterministic model for tuberculosis TB) transmission dynamics in populations stratified by comorbidity status. TB caused 1.3 million deaths globally in 2023, while diabetes(a major TB comorbidity), affects 537 million adults and contributes to $15-20\%$ of TB cases worldwide \cite{bi_comments_2025, kumar_prevalence_2024}. The syndemic is most severe in high-burden nations: India, Indonesia, China and the Philippines account for nearly half of the 10.8 million annual TB cases, with diabetes prevalence among TB patients exceeding $15\%$ globally reaching $>45\%$ in parts of the Western Pacific [\cite{kumar_prevalence_2024}]. The model includes elevated TB susceptibility in comorbid individuals ($\alpha_c\geq\alpha$), accelerated progression to active disease ($\delta_c\geq\delta$), increased mortality ($\nu_c\geq\nu$), reduced recovery ($\gamma_c\leq\gamma$), and comorbidity acquisition $\theta$. Cross-transmission between subpopulations occurs via weighted infectious pressure $T=\beta I+\beta _cI_c$. The Jacobian matrix is derived to enable equilibrium stability analysis; the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ is computed, and critical parameters driving TB persistence are identified. Numerical simulations show that rising comorbidity prevalence substantially increase endemic TB burden, risking elimination goals.
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