Speaker
Description
Agro–forestry socio-ecological systems in high-latitude regions are strongly influenced by climate variability, snow dynamics, and land-use change, leading to nonlinear behaviors and regime shifts \cite{Scheffer2001}. We develop a satellite-informed dynamical systems framework to model these systems under environmental forcing.
The objective is to construct a non-autonomous system of differential equations capturing threshold mechanisms and transitions between regimes. Satellite-derived variables (Sentinel data), including vegetation productivity, pasture–forest distribution, and carrying capacities, are incorporated as parameters and time-dependent forcing terms.
The model exhibits nonlinear dynamics driven by the interaction between internal feedbacks and external forcing. We analyze equilibrium structures under quasi-stationary conditions, local stability, and bifurcation mechanisms \cite{Kuznetsov2004} associated with sustainability and collapse regimes. Composite parameters linking grazing pressure, forest cover, and climate forcing define critical thresholds.
A stochastic extension with multiplicative noise reveals shifts in stability and variability around equilibria. Numerical simulations illustrate sensitivity to forcing and the emergence of nontrivial trajectories.
This framework contributes to nonlinear and hybrid dynamical systems by providing a data-informed approach to modeling biologically relevant systems under non-autonomous and stochastic dynamics.
Bibliography
@article{Scheffer2001,
title={Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems},
author={Scheffer et al.},
journal={Nature},
volume={413},
pages={591--596},
year={2001}
}
@book{Kuznetsov2004,
title={Elements of Applied Bifurcation Theory},
author={Kuznetsov, Yuri A.},
year={2004},
publisher={Springer}
}
