Speaker
Description
Mathematical models of human thermoregulation are widely used to study temperature regulation in challenging environments, yet their complexity often limits the systematic analysis of long-term behaviour. Many established models include non-smooth, threshold-based mechanisms and do not explicitly represent the gradual loss of thermoregulatory capacity during prolonged cold exposure. In this talk, we introduce a new smooth thermoregulatory model that incorporates a thermoregulatory fatigue mechanism. The model reproduces behaviour consistent with experimental data and established models while enabling rigorous analysis of steady states and long-term dynamics. Using bifurcation analysis, we reveal a bistability phenomenon that offers a mechanistic explanation for sudden collapse after small perturbations, such as a brief lapse in physical activity, during prolonged cold exposure. Finally, the analysis yields approximate conditions for long-term survival and links the long-term response to a transition from homeostatic regulation to allostatic adaptation, culminating in thermoregulatory collapse.
