12–17 Jul 2026
University of Graz
Europe/Vienna timezone

Mathematical model for analysing the interplay between income, nutrition, and tuberculosis dynamics

16 Jul 2026, 10:40
20m
15.46 - SR (University of Graz)

15.46 - SR

University of Graz

46
Contributed Talk Mathematical Epidemiology Contributed Talks

Speaker

Palak Goel (BML Munjal university Gurugram)

Description

Inadequate nutrition, driven by the unaffordability of a healthy diet in low and middle-income countries, is a major barrier to achieve the WHO's End Tuberculosis (TB) strategy. To address this issue, the authors have developed a compartmental model by incorporating transmission rate β̃(M), recovery rate γ̃(N), and TB-related mortality rate μ̃tb(N), as functions of income and nutrition levels. The model captures the dynamical interaction between these factors and their influence on disease spread, and mortality. In this work, the authors have calculated the reproduction number which quantifies the contagious nature of the disease by using next generation matrix approach and analysed its sensitivity using normalized forward sensitivity index approach. Through numerical simulations, the authors have analysed various scenarios such as including voluntary and mandatory nutrition uptake, as well as varying nutrition and income levels within the population. The results of the present model show that improved nutrition and higher income significantly reduce TB transmission and mortality, but the disease burden can only be fully alleviated when both factors are simultaneously addressed. The sensitivity analysis for the reproduction number highlights that reducing the transmission rate is essential for bringing the reproduction number R0 below the crucial threshold. This study emphasises the necessity of holistic interventions that improve both nutrition and socio-economic conditions.

Author

Palak Goel (BML Munjal university Gurugram)

Co-author

Pramod Yadav (Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology Allahabad)

Presentation materials

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