Speaker
Description
Since its inception as a discipline, infectious disease modelling has also been aware of the importance of and considered the spreading of behaviours relevant to infection. While there have been many epidemiological modelling studies integrating behaviour in general, it is less common to consider specific behaviours. Here, I will present work that models the specific behaviours around TTI – Test, Trace and Isolate. This specificity makes the mechanism by which changes in infection prevalence can influence awareness more apparent, since this happens via case reporting. And it also makes the mechanism by which behaviour change following increased awareness can influence disease transmission more apparent, since this happens via reduction of contacts.
Here, I will present work with several different collaborations on this problem, including: (i) explicit analysis of a dynamical systems model for coupled epidemic and TTI behaviour spreading \cite{ryan_behaviour_2025}; (ii) network analysis methods for understanding the impact of mixing as a control parameter and associated health-economic trade-offs \cite{thatchai_investigating_2025}; and (iii) data-driven non-parametric methods that enable learning from time series of teasting \cite{lythgoe_lineage_2023}.
Bibliography
@misc{ryan_behaviour_2025,
title = {A {Behaviour} and {Disease} {Model} of {Testing} and {Isolation}},
url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2504.02488},
author = {Ryan, Matthew and Hickson, Roslyn I. and Hill, Edward M. and House, Thomas and Isham, Valerie and Zhang, Dongni and Roberts, Mick G.},
year = {2025},
}
@article{thatchai_investigating_2025,
title = {Investigating the trade-off between infections and social interactions using a compact model of endemic infections on networks},
volume = {2},
number = {1},
journal = {Mathematics in Medical and Life Sciences},
author = {Thatchai, Bunlang and Overton, Christopher E. and House, Thomas},
year = {2025},
pages = {2468221},
}
@article{lythgoe_lineage_2023,
title = {Lineage replacement and evolution captured by 3 years of the {United} {Kingdom} {Coronavirus} ({COVID}-19) {Infection} {Survey}},
volume = {290},
number = {2009},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
author = {Lythgoe, Katrina A. and Golubchik, Tanya and Hall, Matthew and House, Thomas and Cahuantzi, Roberto and MacIntyre-Cockett, George and Fryer, Helen and Thomson, Laura and Nurtay, Anel and Ghafani, Mahan and Buck, David and Green, Angie and Trebes, Amy and Piazza, Paolo and Lonie, Lorne J. and Studley, Ruth and Rourke, Emma and Smith, Darren and Bashton, Matthew and Nelson, Andrew and Crown, Matthew and McCann, Clare and Young, Gregory R. and Andre Nunes Dos Santos, Rui and Richards, Zack and Tariq, Adnan and {Wellcome Sanger Institute COVID-19 Surveillance Team} and {COVID-19 Infection Survey Group, The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium} and Fraser, Christophe and Diamond, Ian and Barrett, Jeff and Walker, Ann Sarah and Bonsall, David},
year = {2023},
pages = {20231284},
}
