Speaker
Description
The recent mpox outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been marked by substantial transmission among children—particularly those under 15 years—and adults with elevated occupational risks, including healthcare workers, sex workers, and hunters. Motivated by emerging evidence that vaccination alone may not fully explain the observed decline in mpox transmission in the DRC, and recognizing that behavioural modification is often more feasible among adults, this study examines the combined effects of vaccination and behaviour-driven contact reduction among high-risk adults within an age- and risk-structured modelling framework. The model stratifies the population into children and adults (high- and low-risk groups), incorporating vaccination for both age groups and behavioural adaptations in the form of contact reduction among high-risk adults. The model is calibrated to weekly reported mpox cases in the DRC from January 2024 to April 2025 to estimate key parameters. Scenario analyses indicate that behavioural change among high-risk adults has a greater impact than vaccination in reducing adult transmission. In contrast, vaccinating children produces the largest overall reduction in cases. Additionally, implementing a 50% contact reduction among high-risk adults approximately 20 weeks earlier results in about a 20% greater reduction in cumulative mpox cases compared with initiating it simultaneously with vaccination.
