Speaker
Description
The interplay between the perceived risk of infection and the host's protective behavior in response to an emerging infection is complex and difficult to abstract. We present a human behavior model here, based on the assumption that the human host exhibits positive adaptive behavior when the disease incidence reaches a certain threshold. Furthermore, we assume that when incidence is low, the adverse effects of negative messaging and risky human behavior outweigh the positive influence of risk perception, thereby amplifying the disease burden. Our mathematical analysis shows that the recruitment rate of susceptible individuals and the incidence that triggers protective behavior determine whether the disease persists or dies out. Moreover, changes in the transmission rate due to risk perception-modulated host behavior may result in a backward bifurcation. This complicates disease control, as the basic reproduction number does not predict epidemic occurrence. This study highlights the importance of understanding the role of complacency in engaging the human adaptive response and risk perception in combating disease spread. It also illustrates that control strategies that reduce the recruitment of susceptible individuals and the infectious period of diseased individuals regulate the size of long-term disease incidence.
