Speaker
Description
The panzootic high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 2.3.4.4b (HPAI) has been circulating globally since 2021, causing wild bird and poultry mortality, alongside spillover into cattle and humans. As of early 2026, Australia remains free of HPAI, although it's arrival is possibly a matter of when, rather than if. The "HASTE project" has been developing decision tools and forecasting models to support evidence-based decisions in future animal health disease outbreaks, and, in early 2026, HASTE has developed HPAI forecasting models, in collaboration with the national government. Jointly we are testing these forecasting tools, alongside our capacity to deliver timely reporting, by entering the "HPAI modelling challenge", a global initiative to promote HPAI forecasting using a simulated challenge dataset. In this presentation I will describe our approach to the challenge and how we have adapted our forecasting tools for HPAI, and I will reflect on lessons for our preparedness for future outbreaks and our ability to provide decision-support modelling in animal health.
Bibliography
Dr Chris Baker is a Senior Research Fellow in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at The University of Melbourne, Australia.
