European Conference on Mathematical and Theoretical Biology (ECMTB 2026)

A Co-production Approach to Epidemic Modelling of Infectious Diseases

Not scheduled

20m

University of Graz

Minisymposium Mathematical Epidemiology A Co-production Approach to Epidemic Modelling of Infectious Diseases

Speakers

Edward Hill (University of Liverpool) Lucy Rycroft (University of Cambridge) Sarah Barnes (University College London) Shema Tariq (University College London) Zviiteyi Chazuka (University College London)

Description

The last half-century has experienced ecological change and greater global connectivity, leading to an increase in emerging and pandemic infections alongside existing endemic pathogens. Epidemic impacts on health and well-being have been large and unequal. There has been a growing demand for modelling of infectious diseases to support epidemic decision-making, enabling the exploration of interactions between biological, social and behavioural processes that underpin transmission patterns. Decisions made in modelling epidemics often contain implicit and unrecognised assumptions affecting model realism and framing of trade-offs, and impacting the utility and representativeness of the advice given to policy-makers. However, unlike other public health fields that benefit from established patient and public involvement, the epidemic modelling field is still developing clear guidance and tools for meaningfully involving affected communities. Co-producing infectious disease models with the community, patients, clinicians, researchers and policymakers is one approach to involving the public in model development to enhance quality and influence on public health policy. This minisymposium will feature talks from the COMMET and MEMVIE projects focused on integrating community voices into the modelling process. We will share insights from mathematical modellers, social scientists and the co-producers themselves on how this can enhance public health interventions during disease outbreaks.

Bibliography

1. ‘MEMVIE Public Involvement Framework for Economic Modelling’. PharmacoEconomics & Outcomes News, vol. 871, no. 1, Feb. 2021, pp. 23–23. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1007/s40274-021-7461-1.

2. CO-Produced Mathematical Modelling of Epidemics Together (COMMET): Methods and Tools for Integrating Public Voices into Epidemic Response Modelling. https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FZ505328%2F1.

3. McCabe, Ruth, and Christl A. Donnelly. ‘Public Awareness of and Opinions on the Use of Mathematical Transmission Modelling to Inform Public Health Policy in the United Kingdom’. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, vol. 20, no. 209, Dec. 2023, p. 20230456. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2023.0456.