Speaker
Description
We present a model for a mosquito-borne epidemic outbreak in which human hosts may adopt protective behaviour against mosquito bites according to the information they receive about disease prevalence. In line with the information index approach \cite{donofrio_information-related_2009}, we assume that individuals react to this information according to a memory kernel that is continuously distributed over the past.
Assuming that mosquitoes can also feed on noncompetent hosts, i.e. hosts that do not contribute to disease transmission, we revisit existing results \cite{demers_dynamic_2018, miller2016risk}, showing that behaviour-driven protection may either decrease or increase the reproduction number of the epidemic depending on several factors.
Furthermore, assuming that behavioural changes occur much faster than epidemic dynamics, it is possible to separate the timescales of the two mechanisms. By applying methods from Geometric Singular Perturbation Theory \cite{fenichel}, we derive an epidemic model with information index for a homogeneous host population.
The reduced system enables a detailed investigation of the impact of information-induced behavioural feedback on the transient dynamics of the epidemic, including scenarios in which protective measures lead to outbreaks with low attack rates \cite{ando_behavior-induced_2026}. Our analysis shows that behavioural responses may facilitate epidemic control, but may also prolong disease persistence, potentially generating recurrent damped epidemic waves. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate and support the analytical findings.
Bibliography
@article{ando_behavior-induced_2026, title = {Behavior-induced oscillations in epidemic outbreaks with distributed memory: {Beyond} the linear chain trick using numerical methods}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, journal = {Math. Biosci. Eng.}, author = {Andò, A. and De Reggi, S. and Scarabel, F. and Vermiglio, R. and Wu, J.}, year = {2026}, pages = {76--96} }
@article{donofrio_information-related_2009, title = {Information-related changes in contact patterns may trigger oscillations in the endemic prevalence of infectious diseases}, volume = {256}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.005}, number = {3}, journal = {J. Theor. Biol.}, author = {d’Onofrio, A. and Manfredi, P.}, year = {2009}, pages = {473--478}, }
@article{demers_dynamic_2018, title = {Dynamic modelling of personal protection control strategies for vector-borne disease limits the role of diversity amplification}, volume = {15}, doi = {10.1098/rsif.2018.0166}, number = {145}, journal = {J. R. Soc. Interface}, author = {Demers, J. and Bewick, S. and Calabrese, J. and Fagan, W.F.}, year = {2018}, pages = {20180166}, }
@article{fenichel, title = {Geometric singular perturbation theory for ordinary differential equations}, journal = {J. Differ. Equ.}, volume = {31}, pages = {53--98}, year = {1979}, doi={10.1016/0022-0396(79)90152-9}, author = {Fenichel, N.} }
@article{miller2016risk, title={The risk of incomplete personal protection coverage in vector-borne disease}, author={Miller, E. and Dushoff, J. and Huppert, A.}, journal={J. R. Soc. Interface.}, volume={13}, number={115}, pages={20150666}, year={2016}, doi={10.1098/rsif.2015.0666}, publisher={The Royal Society} }
