Speaker
Description
We present a comprehensive agent-based model designed to investigate the complex interplay between avoidant behavior and influenza transmission dynamics under varying levels of vaccine efficacy. The model’s architecture is grounded in an age-stratified contact matrix and stochastic transmission probabilities, where individual health outcomes are determined by their specific disease history. Crucially, we incorporate a behavioral component: while unvaccinated individuals tend to reduce social contacts—particularly with symptomatic peers—vaccination can paradoxically diminish perceived risk, leading to a reduction in such avoidant behaviors. Our simulations demonstrate that when vaccine efficacy is low, this 'behavioral compensation' can inadvertently increase the overall risk of infection. These findings underscore a critical public health message: seasonal vaccination campaigns for influenza and other airborne pathogens must look beyond immunization alone, actively promoting sustained precautionary measures, such as mask-wearing and hygiene, to mitigate the effects of reduced risk perception.
