Speaker
Description
In this talk, we discuss a hybrid modeling framework to analyze measles transmission and vaccination strategies during the 2025 Texas outbreak. A deterministic model incorporating single- and double-dose vaccination with vaccine efficacy was calibrated to reported Texas measles data from January 20 to May27, 2025. To complement the mechanistic analysis, time-series forecasting methods, Facebook Prophet and a Gated Recurrent Unit are applied to predict daily new cases. The Prophet model outperforms the GRU based on standard performance metrics. Both models project continued low-level transmission, with an estimated average of 1–2 daily cases (95% CI: 1–2) through August 30, 2025, in the absence of additional interventions. These results highlight the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent future outbreaks and reduce the risk of measles endemicity in Texas.
