Speaker
Description
Since 2020, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in Great Britain have resulted in substantial poultry mortality and economic losses. There are additional concerns of increased HPAI circulation leading to a viral reassortment that causes zoonotic spillover. However, the mechanisms driving transmission between poultry premises and the impact of potential control measures in Great Britain, such as vaccination, are not fully understood. To enhance understanding of the disease transmission process and the potential measures that could be used to avert future infections, there is a need for mathematical models to be calibrated to outbreak data. I will present a spatial transmission model for the spread of HPAI in poultry premises calibrated using Markov chain Monte Carlo to infected premises data for the 2022–23 influenza season in Great Britain. The model formulation adapts existing spatial individual poultry premises-based models - such as Jewell et al. \cite{jewell2009novel} and Hill et al. \cite{hill2017modelling, hill2018impact} - for Great Britain. I will then overview model simulations investigating the potential epidemiological impacts of reactive enhanced control strategies that reduce susceptibility of poultry (e.g. enhanced biosecurity measures and/or vaccination). Our findings highlight thatenhanced control measures could limit the future impact of HPAI on the poultry industry and reduce the risk of broader health threats \cite{davis2026modelling}.
Bibliography
@article{jewell2009novel,
title={A novel approach to real-time risk prediction for emerging infectious diseases:
a case study in {Avian Influenza H5N1}},
author={Jewell, C. P. and Kypraios, T. and Christley, R. M. and Roberts,
G. O.},
journal={Preventive veterinary medicine},
volume={91},
number={1},
pages={19--28},
year={2009},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{hill2017modelling,
title={Modelling {H5N1} in {B}angladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and
zoonotic transmission risk},
author={Hill, E. M. and House, T. and Dhingra, M. S. and
Kalpravidh, W. and Morzaria, S. and Osmani, M. G. and
Yamage, M. and Xiao, X. and Gilbert, M. and Tildesley, M. J.},
journal={Epidemics},
volume={20},
pages={37--55},
year={2017},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{hill2018impact,
title={The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza
outbreaks in poultry in {D}haka division, {B}angladesh},
author={Hill, E. M. and House, T. and Dhingra, M. S. and
Kalpravidh, W. and Morzaria, S. and Osmani, M. G. and Brum,
E. and Yamage, M. and Kalam, M. A. and Prosser, D. J. and others},
journal={PLoS computational biology},
volume={14},
number={9},
pages={e1006439},
year={2018},
publisher={Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA}
}
@article{davis2026modelling,
title={A modelling assessment of the impact of control measures on highly
pathogenic avian influenza transmission in poultry in {G}reat {B}ritain},
author={Davis, C. N. and Hill, E. M. and Jewell, C. P. and Rysava,
K. and Thompson, R. N. and Tildesley, M. J.},
journal={PLOS Computational Biology},
volume={22},
number={1},
pages={e1013874},
year={2026},
publisher={Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA}
}
