Speaker
Description
H9N2 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are endemic in Bangladesh and are consistently detected at high prevalence within live bird markets (LBMs). Despite its low pathogenic status, H9N2 AIV can hamper poultry meat and egg production. Moreover, its sheer prevalence in LBMs is concerning due to the associated risks of zoonotic spillover and viral reassortment with other co-circulating AIV subtypes (e.g. H5N1). In this presentation, I will first summarise recent modelling efforts leveraging observational data from a large, collaborative project to characterise H9N2 AIV epidemiology in LBMs. In particular, I will discuss the main drivers of virus persistence and diversity within LBMs. I will then show that within-LBM AIV dynamics cannot be fully understood without considering the rest of the production and distribution network (PDN) where LBMs are the terminal nodes. Indeed, upstream activities like poultry farming and transport are found to provide opportunities for the transmission and dissemination of infectious agents along the PDN. Finally, I will introduce a novel agent-based modelling framework to describe AIV transmission at the scale of the entire PDN. The model involves multiple actors and settings, including farms, mobile traders and LBMs, and uses extensive survey data to inform their behaviour. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for the entire PDN structure to implement more effective veterinary public health measures to reduce the burden of H9N2 AIV.
