Speaker
Description
We provide an overview of the mechanisms behind the spreading of avian flu in farms, focusing in particular on the H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) epidemic which occurred in northern Italy in 2021--2022 \cite{ref8}.
We present unpublished data on the spread of HPAI among a network of hundreds of farms, visualizing the possible infection routes of the epidemic. We then define a stochastic SEUDR (Susceptible -- Exposed -- Undetected -- Detected -- Removed) model, based in part on \cite{ref2}.
We identify three main sources of infection (wildlife, same poultry company, and geographical distance), and estimate the parameters of our probabilistic model through the available data. We then proceed to the identification of the most likely date and source of infection for each farm involved in the epidemic wave under analysis, and provide a model which can be adapted to any other avian flu epidemic which involves both wildlife and domestic poultry.
Bibliography
@article{ref2,
title={Modelling the spatial spread of {H7N1} avian influenza virus among poultry farms in Italy},
author={Dorigatti, I. and Mulatti, P. and Ros{`a}, R. and Pugliese, A. and Busani, L.},
journal={Epidemics},
volume={2},
number={1},
pages={29--35},
year={2010},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@misc{ref7,
title = {{Fondazione Caritro bando post-doc 2024}},
howpublished = {\url{https://www.fondazionecaritro.it/bandi/bando-post-doc-2024/}}
}
@misc{ref8,
title = {{Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie (IZSVe)}},
howpublished = {\url{https://www.izsvenezie.com/reference-laboratories/avian-influenza-newcastle-disease/italy-update/}}
}
