Speaker
Description
Mathematical modelling is a valuable tool in assessing disease dynamics and interventions. Models may be deterministic, stochastic, data driven, network-based, or hybrid, combining multiple approaches. Advances in computing power, data collection, and simulation frameworks have made it possible to create dynamic models that integrate individual behaviour, environmental context and policy scenarios. The agent-based framework was chosen in this work because of its ability to simulate person-to-person behavioural characteristics, personality traits, and individual decision-making.
For a disease such as MPOX, with a strong behavioural component influencing transmission dynamics, we investigate the possible transmission from a small subpopulation to a larger one, by accounting for differing individual decisions leading to differentiated contacts among population members. We then employ calibration methods and scenario testing to investigate the cross-over spread of the disease and possible control strategies. The talk will illustrate our ideas in the case of MPOX transmission with a signaling game.
This talk is joint work with: Bridgette Amoako, Ed Thommes.
