Speaker
Description
Our work focuses on understanding predator-prey dynamics in a complex
landscape that is constantly changing due to forest growth and disturbances
such as wildfire or logging. Climate change is increasing the frequency and
severity of wildfires, causing additional stress to the forest ecosystem on top of
existing anthropogenic activity. We seek to understand how these landscape
disturbances affect the persistence of resident predator-prey populations. In
particular, how changes to disturbance frequency and magnitude alter ecosystem
stability. As a practical example of this interconnected system, we focus on the
goshawk-squirrel predator-prey system in Canadian coniferous forests.
Most predator-prey models that consider patchy landscapes, keep patch
properties constant over time. We include time-varying patch properties, ac-
counting for the disturbance-regrowth cycle. An additional complicating factor
we take into account is the territoriality of squirrels. We present a mathematical
model for this system and show how species persistence is affected by a chang-
ing disturbance regime. Our results show that changes in disturbance frequency,
along with patch sizes affects species densities and their persistence.
Ultimately, we hope that the results and the model will inform conversa-
tion efforts for the goshawk and for predator-prey systems that rely on mature
forests.
