Speaker
Description
The epidemic dynamics of West Nile Virus in Northern Italy (where it has been endemic since 2012) has been analysed in several studies, from modelling studies elucidating the main factors allowing for its persistence \cite{Marini2020,DeNardi2025}, to genetic and epidemiological analysis identifying the most likely transmission routes \cite{Mencattelli2023,Gobbo2025}. Here, we extend the existing modelling studies to include spatial spread over the whole of Northern Italy. The model considers spatial and temporal heterogeneity of mosquito population dynamics, due especially to temperature-dependent demographic rates. By a qualitative comparison with available surveillance data, we discuss whether spatial spread can better be explained by constant short-range diffusion or longer-range movements at migration times.
Bibliography
@article{Gobbo2025,
author = {Gobbo, Federica and Chiarello, Giulia and Sgubin, Sofia and Toniolo, Federica and Gradoni, Francesco and Danca, Lidia I and Carlin, Sara and Capello, Katia and {De Conti}, Giacomo and Bortolami, Alessio and Varotto, Maria and Favero, Laura and Brichese, Michele and Russo, Francesca and Mutinelli, Franco and Vogiatzis, Stefania and Pacenti, Monia and Barzon, Luisa and Montarsi, Fabrizio},
journal = {Pathogens},
doi = {10.3390/pathogens14030227},
isbn = {2076-0817},
keywords = {Marisma virus,One Health,Usutu virus,West Nile virus,arbovirus,bird,human encephalitis,mosquito,orthoflavivirus,surveillance},
number = {3},
pages = {227},
title = {{Integrated One Health Surveillance of West Nile Virus and Usutu Virus in the Veneto Region, Northeastern Italy, from 2022 to 2023}},
volume = {14},
year = {2025}
}
@article{Mencattelli2023,
author = {Mencattelli, Giulia and Silverj, Andrea and Iapaolo, Federica and Ippoliti, Carla and Teodori, Liana and {Di Gennaro}, Annapia and Curini, Valentina and Candeloro, Luca and Conte, Annamaria and Polci, Andrea and Morelli, Daniela and Perrotta, Maria G and Marini, Giovanni and Ros{`{a}}, Roberto and Monaco, Federica and Segata, Nicola and Rizzoli, Annapaola and Rota-Stabelli, Omar and Savini, Giovanni and West Nile Working Group},
journal = {Viruses},
doi = {10.3390/v15010035},
isbn = {1999-4915},
keywords = {Italy,West Nile virus lineage 2,early-warning,epidemiology,evolution},
number = {1},
pages = {35},
title = {{Epidemiological and Evolutionary Analysis of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 in Italy}},
volume = {15},
year = {2023}
}
@article{Marini2020,
author = {Marini, Giovanni and Calzolari, Mattia and Angelini, Paola and Bellini, Romeo and Bellini, Silvia and Bolzoni, Luca and Torri, Deborah and Defilippo, Francesco and Dorigatti, Ilaria and Nikolay, Birgit and Pugliese, Andrea and Ros{`{a}}, Roberto and Tamba, Marco},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0007953},
issn = {19352735},
journal = {PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis.},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {e0007953},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
title = {{A quantitative comparison of West Nile virus incidence from 2013 to 2018 in Emilia-Romagna, Italy}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007953},
volume = {14},
year = {2020}
}
@article{DeNardi2025,
author = {{De Nardi}, Alex and Marini, Giovanni and Dorigatti, Ilaria and Ros{`{a}}, Roberto and Tamba, Marco and Gelmini, Luca and Prosperi, Alice and Menegale, Francesco and Poletti, Piero and Calzolari, Mattia and Pugliese, Andrea},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2024.12.009},
issn = {2468-0427},
journal = {Infect. Dis. Model.},
keywords = {Birds,Mathematical model,Mosquito,Public health,Vector-borne disease},
number = {2},
pages = {375--386},
title = {{Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724001350},
volume = {10},
year = {2025}
}
