Speaker
Description
Control techniques that rely on a known model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis, such as model predictive control, have recently been explored for systematically recommending medication dosages to treat thyroid diseases like hypo- and hyperthyroidism \cite{A,B,C}. When implemented based on a high-fidelity model, they require knowledge of internal hormone concentrations of thyroid stimulating hormone, thyroxine, and triiodothyronine inside the pituitary and thyroid glands \cite{A,C}. However, only peripheral concentrations can be measured from blood tests, often at irregular and sparse sampling times, preventing the direct use of these techniques. We address this by implementing a sample-based moving horizon estimation scheme for the HPT axis based on \cite{D}, that estimates the internal concentrations from irregular measurements of peripheral concentrations. Robust stability of the estimator is demonstrated across multiple sampling schemes in simulation. Frequent sampling allows the tracking of intraday behavior and hence better estimation performance, but less-frequent sampling still captures slower behavior which is clinically relevant.
Bibliography
@article{A,
title={Optimal hormone replacement therapy in hypothyroidism - a model predictive control approach},
volume={13},
ISSN={1664-2392}, url={https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2022.884018/full},
DOI={10.3389/fendo.2022.884018}, journal={Frontiers in Endocrinology},
author={Wolff, Tobias M. and Dietrich, Johannes W. and Müller, Matthias A.},
year={2022},
month=june,
pages={884018},
}
@article{B,
title={Model predictive controller-based levothyroxine dosing strategy for patients suffering from hashimoto’s thyroiditis}, volume={58}, ISSN={24058963},
url={https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405896324021761},
DOI={10.1016/j.ifacol.2024.11.049},
number={24},
journal={IFAC-PapersOnLine},
author={Sharma, Ravi and Goede, Simon Lucas and Theiler-Schwetz, Verena and Reichhartinger, Markus},
year={2024},
pages={275–280},
language={en},
}
@article{C,
title={Modeling and predictive control for the treatment of hyperthyroidism},
volume={59},
ISSN={24058963},
url={https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405896325002587},
DOI={10.1016/j.ifacol.2025.03.041},
number={1},
journal={IFAC-PapersOnLine},
author={Wolff, Tobias M. and Menzel, Maylin and Dietrich, Johannes W. and Müller, Matthias A.},
year={2025},
pages={235–240},
language={en},
}
@article{D,
title={Sample-based moving horizon estimation},
rights={Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 International},
url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.24191},
DOI={10.48550/ARXIV.2510.24191},
publisher={arXiv},
author={Krauss, Isabelle and Lopez, Victor G. and Müller, Matthias A.},
year={2025},
}
