Speaker
Description
In early 2025, a measles outbreak emerged in West Texas, USA, and spread into northern Mexico, with Chihuahua becoming the epicenter of Mexico's largest measles resurgence in decades. The outbreak affected Mennonite colonies, Indigenous Rar\'amuri (Tarahumara) communities in the Sierra Tarahumara, and highly mobile agricultural worker populations.
We analyzed municipality-level confirmed case counts in Chihuahua using a generalized logistic growth model to estimate early epidemic growth rates and characterize deviations from exponential growth. Uncertainty was quantified by bootstrap resampling under a negative binomial observation model. We linked epidemic dynamics to structural deprivation using hierarchical clustering based on poverty municipal indicators. To conceptualize cross-border coupling under heterogeneous immunization, we summarize a two-population vaccination model.
