In early 2025, a measles outbreak emerged in West Texas, USA, and spread into northern Mexico, with Chihuahua becoming the epicenter of Mexico's largest measles resurgence in decades. The outbreak affected Mennonite colonies, Indigenous Rar\'amuri (Tarahumara) communities in the Sierra Tarahumara, and highly mobile agricultural worker populations.
We analyzed municipality-level confirmed case...
We have developed and age and immunity-structured model of COVID-19 infections and interventions. We have employed this model to assess the effectiveness of vaccination and various non-pharmaceutical interventions (school closure, work-from-home, closing of public places) in reducing COVID-19 spread and the healthcare demand. In this presentation, we will share our results for Canada...
Social media data has become increasingly used to monitor infectious diseases. This presentation will showcase case studies on Mpox and Lyme disease, demonstrating how social media data can support the prediction of cases and other disease-related characteristics.
The HIV/AIDS epidemic remains a major global health challenge, with no definitive cure currently available. Following the World Health Organization’s 2014 recommendations, a preventive treatment known as Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) has been adopted worldwide, introduced in France in 2016, to curb HIV transmission. We propose here a new compartmental epidemiological model that explicitly...
I will present a methodology that maps within-host dynamics of infection into an age-of-infection model. The one-directional link is achieved using a virtual cohort of individuals through which we gather information about disease characteristics at the population level namely, age-of-infection dependent transmission, recovery and death rates.
The basic reproduction number is a standard tool in disease modelling for determining the conditions under which a disease free equilibrium goes unstable and produces an epidemic. One popular procedure for determining this is the next generation matrix method. When this method is applied to models with pair formation, it is able to determine the stability threshold for the disease free...
Management of the COVID-19 pandemic required in its early stages the deployment of non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) [social isolation, physical distancing, mask-wearing, hand-washing]. We analyse a simple model to illustrate the consequences, for the evolution of the disease, of variable, dynamic individual compliance to these measures: the model divides a population in uninformed,...
Classic epidemiological models typically assume that, at a population level, infection is proportional to incidence of disease and the probability of contact between those infected and those susceptible. However, human behaviour can drastically change the contact and infectious pathways of diseases altering the types of outbreaks that models can predict. Additionally, the way that individuals...
